Though the 2013 presidential, parliamentary and local elections in Zimbabwe last month were accepted as ‘credible’ by the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), given they were largely peaceful, copious evidence points to the fact that the ballots were rigged. It seems Zanu-PF learnt their lesson from the negative response to their use of massive violence to win the run-off presidential elections of 2008.
Since 2009, Zimbabwe has had a shaky coalition government. In league with the country’s military, Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF maintained its repressive control of all levers of government – with the exception of the finance ministry, under the control of its governing ‘partner’ the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – and had no intention of allowing any security, judicial or media reform as called for by the SADC and civil society.
Zimbabwe now sees the return of Zanu-PF with a two-thirds parliamentary majority, enough to enable it to change the constitution. Robert Mugabe, too, is back for a seventh consecutive term as Zimbabwean president, with a suspiciously large 61 per cent share of the vote, and promising further land reform and indigenisation, especially of mines and banks. There is even talk of reviving the Zimbabwean dollar, bringing with it fears of the return of world record hyperinflation. The stock market reaction to the largest one-day decline since 2009 seems to suggest little confidence.
But back to the incredible elections. Manipulation began before voting day, with the unreformed voters’ roll including thousands of deceased people, and excluding many living voters. Some 63 constituencies had more registered voters than inhabitants. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), under the control of Zanu-PF, not only refused till the last minute to release the electoral roll for public perusal, but wouldn’t even confirm the position of 65 polling stations until the day of the vote. Moreover, officials registered only eight per cent of younger voters, leaving two million unregistered, and printed an extra two million ballot papers, 35 per cent more than needed. On the day, thousands of registered voters were turned away, while the number of ‘assisted’ voters was abnormally high, and people were allowed to vote using registration slips, some with multiple copies.
The climate of fear in Zimbabwe has meant that since the 1990s there has been little chance of any kind of ‘Arab Spring’-like revolution, as evident by the absence of any public protest. At the same time, there has been little leadership from political parties, churches or others to combat the repression or electoral manipulation. The Catholic Bishops’ Conference initially called for “problems and irregularities to be fully investigated by the responsible authorities” but has now appealed for acceptance of the result.
For the future, it remains possible that investment from Zimbabwe’s allies such as China and the other Brics countries may increase, but will this match the likely decline in major western investment scared off by indigenisation? Although, western donors have seemed keen to re-engage with Harare despite a volatile human rights situation, given China’s current grip on the country’s resources. And with poverty running at 63 per cent, and extreme poverty at 16 per cent, it is more likely that emigration will be an option for many Zimbabweans.
But none of that matters when it’s clear that the world is more than pleased to close the book on Zimbabwe. Little, therefore, is likely to change for the Zimbabwean people who have yet again been denied the free and fair expression of their views.
Dr Steve Kibble is chair of the board of directors of the Zimbabwe Europe Network.
