‘IT’S THE ECONOMY, stupid.’ So goes Bill Clinton’s famous slogan. But in Mozambique’s case, it doesn’t quite ring true.
For the past nine years, without fail, the southern African country has been hit by flooding, drought or cyclones – causing hundreds of thousands to flee their homes – and the mass destruction of crops.
So before the Mozambicans can afford such luxurious western preoccupations as ‘the economy’, they will have to get to grips with a much graver problem: climate change.
In late May, a detailed study of the effects of climate change on Mozambique confirmed that the country will be overwhelmed by the impacts of cyclones, floods, droughts and disease outbreaks if immediate action isn’t taken.
“The exposure to natural disaster risk in Mozambique will increase significantly over the coming 20 years and beyond,” noted the Climate Change Report by Mozam-bique’s National Disaster Management Institute (INGC).
“In the event of poor global mitigation results – the ‘too little, too late’ scenario – temperatures in Mozambique could rise by as much as two degrees Celsius to 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, and by five degrees Celsius to six degrees Celsius by 2090.”
It continued: “Up to approximately 2030, more severe cyclones will pose the biggest threat to the coast; beyond 2030, the accelerating sea level rise will present the greatest danger.”
The study advises the Mozambican government to expand its disaster preparedness “far beyond” present levels and to develop a national plan for responding to climate change.
Mozambique is still recovering from Cyclone Jokwe, which last year attacked its northern coast with winds of 87 miles per hour, killing at least 17 people and leaving thousands homeless.
And all of this has been affecting Mozambique’s otherwise impressive growth rates.
The devastating floods of early 2000 slowed the country’s GDP growth to 2.1 per cent, following rates of 10 per cent in the late 1990s.
It picked up again, but is expected to slow in 2009 – down from 6.5 per cent growth in 2008 – due to the current economic crisis.
