On 9 July, thousands of euphoric southern Sudanese poured into the streets of Juba to celebrate the birth of Africa’s 54th nation. The raising of their flag was an emotional moment, one they’ve been waiting for after suffering two rounds of fierce civil war (from 1955-1972 and 1983-2005).
On 9 July, thousands of euphoric southern Sudanese poured into the streets of Juba to celebrate the birth of Africa’s 54th nation. The raising of their flag was an emotional moment, one they’ve been waiting for after suffering two rounds of fierce civil war (from 1955-1972 and 1983-2005).
Capitalising on the right to self-determination which was enshrined in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), southerners voted overwhelmingly for secession in a general referendum carried out back in January. The result came as no surprise, as the ruling National Congress Party and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) failed to make unity attractive during the six-year transitional period that ensued from the signing of the CPA.
Southerners believe that former US President George W Bush should take credit for pushing the southern rebels and the Khartoum government – both war weary – to sign the comprehensive peace accord that guaranteed the southerners the right to choose for themselves.
As expected, the new state was warmly welcomed and immediately recognised by much of the world. But there are mixed feelings in the north. Some deplore the split of their country and expressed fears that the turbulent region of Darfur may follow suit. They believe that President Bashir will go down in history as the ruler who let the south go.
It’s worth mentioning that both states rely heavily on oil revenues. According to official reports from Khartoum, the north will lose 70 per cent of its share in oil reserves and 50 per cent of its share in oil revenues as a result of the south’s secession. At present, oil revenues represent around 70 per cent of the country’s total exports.
People in northern Sudan have already felt the pinch following tough measures by Bashir’s government to increase the prices of some essential commodities, including oil. Meanwhile, since the reliance of the south on oil revenues may well exceed 95 per cent, the land-locked Republic of South Sudan has no alternative but to use the exiting infrastructure in the north if it is to continue to benefit from oil revenues.
The pipeline that carries the ‘new found wealth’ flows through the north to the port of Basha’ir on the Red Sea. Even if the south opts for building its own pipeline and chooses to export its oil via Kenya, this is not economically viable and will take years to implement. That said, pragmatism is expected to shape the new relations between the north and South Sudan.
Now southerners have achieved their ultimate goal, the governments of both the new and old Sudan have enormous challenges ahead. Along with the oil situation, issues such as border demarcation, foreign debt and dual citizenship are still pending. The National Assembly in Khartoum has already passed a law to withdraw Sudanese citizenship from all southerners living in the north.
As all this goes on, the disputed area of Abyei has been viewed by many as a ticking time-bomb in light of the failure of both sides to agree on who has the right to vote in its referendum. Bashir’s government occupied the area last month, but later agreed on the deployment of UN blue berets (mainly Ethiopian troops) in the area. Fighting has also erupted in the state of South Kordofan, which has borders with South Sudan.
While the southerners’ right to self-determination has to be respected, and the new country is wished every success, the fact remains that the secession of South Sudan constitutes a huge challenge, not only for Sudan but for Africa as a whole.
For northern Sudan there is a risk that the rest of the country may fall apart. As far as Africa is concerned, this is not a good day for the proponents of African unity, and many fear the spread of the contagion.
Tarig Yousif PhD is a freelance researcher in the field of forced migration and human displacement. He worked for many years as an aid worker in refugee camps in Sudan
