EVER Since South Sudan achieved its independence last year, the sporadic tribal violence in the new state, and strained relations with the Republic of Sudan, have dominated the political panorama.
Deep tribal conflicts pose a great challenge to peace and security in the fledgling state. In a society where loyalty is to the tribe, not to the nation, the post-split political scene has witnessed an intensification of tribal feuding. Hundreds of southerners lost their lives in Jonglei state in the first few months of independence, as the Murle and Lou Nuer people fight over cattle. The UN reports that around 26,000 cattle have been stolen and 26,800 people displaced from their homes.
Moreover, unresolved pre-secession issues such as oil revenues, the demarcation of borders, and the future of the Abyeie region are to blame for the deteriorating relations between the two neighbours. Heavy fighting in South Kordofan, which has borders with South Sudan, has made matters worse as Khartoum accused Juba of supporting the rebellion that erupted in June 2011.
Hopes for a lasting peace in the post-secession era were dashed even further when fighting flared up in the Blue Nile area. Many commentators fear that South Sudan risks becoming a failed state as a result of the escalating border violence.
Another disturbing development for the Republic of Sudan is the unification of four rebel groups as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), who declared that they would topple the regime of the National Congress Party (NCP) “using all available means”.
Just a few weeks ago the SRF inflicted heavy casualties on government forces in the Alabiad area in South Kordofan. This happened soon after the killing of Dr Khalil Ibrahim, the leader of Darfur’s most powerful rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement (Jem). The Khartoum government alleged he died in clashes while trying to sneak into South Sudan. However, the Jem issued a statement saying their leader was killed by missiles fired by a drone. Meanwhile, amid mounting tensions and while addressing his supporters, Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir ordered the setting up of training camps across the country for his party’s paramilitary unit, the Popular Defence Forces (PDF).
More than a month ago, South Sudan halted its oil production. This serious development was the result of the failure of the two states to agree on the transit fees that are supposed to be paid by South Sudan in return for using Sudan’s pipeline. In a bid to rescue the situation, African Union mediators had to step in to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table.
After days of nerve-racking negotiations in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, Sudan and South Sudan signed a framework agreement on issues of nationality and demarcation of their common borders. This is a significant step forward towards resolving the remaining post-secession issues.
The framework agreements give the citizens of both countries the rights to enjoy “freedom of residence, freedom of movement, freedom to carry out economic activity and freedom to acquire and dispose property.”
The last thing the citizens of these two war-weary countries want to see is another destructive war. Unless there is a lasting peace, people will not be able to benefit from the huge untapped resources they share. Unfortunately, the strong will to do so seems to be absent.
Tarig Yousif PhD is a freelance researcher in the field of forced migration and human displacement. He worked for many years as an aid worker in refugee camps in Sudan.
