The current debate over the Lisbon Treaty is gathering pace, with signs that political parties are opening up their chequebooks and mount- ing a vigorous campaign.
Images in the national newspapers of the Taoiseach Brian Cowen campaigning with the Labour leader Eamon Gilmore and local Fine Gael TD Olivia Mitchell in Dundrum Shopping Centre have finally put paid to the notion that the main political parties are squabbling while the ‘no’ campaign steal a march on them.
All three of the parties who commanded well over 80 per cent of the votes in the last general election are urging voters to vote ‘yes’. Yet despite this overwhelming political consensus, there is a real fear that this treaty could be voted down.
It may be that with the evolution of our domestic economy and our sudden ascent to wealth in recent years, Irish people are feeling dislocated by all the change that has happened in their lives and the world around them. It may be that voters are responding in this fashion because the prospect of yet more change at a European level is being offered – and with it the prospect of further change at home here in Ireland.
Sometimes voters opt to simply have a rest, and as a result vote against what they perceive to be a reform agenda being pushed by a political establishment or consensus at elite level. Certainly this was how the first Nice Treaty referendum in 2001 turned out, and this was one of the factors that played into the ‘no’ vote.
However, on this occasion it is hard to detect the same level of dislocation among voters, and this probably means the treaty will pass – but on a narrow result. It is difficult to see at this stage a big voter turnout; a low turnout will suit the ‘no’ campaign.
It is hard to understand how Irish voters, against a very unstable international background, would willingly opt to render Europe gridlocked and firm in the grip of bureaucratic inertia at this particular juncture. Few people at a political level are dewy eyed or romantic about the way Europe operates, but at the same time it is a very necessary and vital part of Ireland’s continuing success story. To date the Irish have proven themselves among the most capable in defending their own interests at a European level.
Given the success of recent years and our proven track record in Europe, it would be very damaging for Ireland were people to have a failure of nerve at this time. It would have a serious impact on what has been a very strong euro currency zone, especially when compared to the fortunes of the US dollar as of late.
At another level, a negative vote in Ireland would send a clear signal to the wider world that the European Union is incapable of reforming itself and becoming a potent global political and diplomatic force.
There is a real danger that if Ireland relapsed back into a narrow nationalistic view of itself, it would hinder how it rises to the new challenges that globalisation throws up.
We are a very competitive country; our trade is dependent on open markets and a strong linkage both to Europe as well as the global multilateral system in general. If we pull back from this, there is a tendency for others to either ignore us, or worse, regard us as a peculiar, almost eccentric little country.
Being viewed in this light is not of course catastrophic for the Irish people, but it does imply a gradual erosion of Irish influence in the world, notwithstanding the obvious advantages we have in bringing our influence to bear in the years ahead.
In terms of our own economic model, the partnership process and our development aid programme, Ireland has become something of a model and source of intrigue to the wider world. It would be a shame if, just as this model is becoming appreciated, the Irish themselves were to walk away from the influence that this brings. It would also be negative from the perspective of continuing with the challenge of integrating newcomers into Irish life.
Conor Lenihan TD is Minister for Integration and represents the constituency of Dublin South West, which includes Tallaght, Greenhills, Firhouse, Templeogue and Bohernabreena
