The prospect of a ‘South African Spring’ cannot be ruled out if internal problems in the ruling African National Congress persist, and the ANC continues to lose popular support – mainly as a result of lack of delivery in housing and education.
South Africa’s ‘uncertain future’ was the subject of a conversation between Irish-born journalist Fiona Forde and Gillian Slovo, the novelist and daughter of former ANC leaders Ruth First and Joe Slovo, at a meeting earlier this year at the Africa Centre in London.
Cape Town-based Forde, who has covered politics and current affairs in South Africa for many years, focused on the plight of most of its population who continue to live without basic services, the anger following the Marikana massacre of striking mine workers, and divisions within the ANC.
Her book An Inconvenient Youth is an account of the activities of the former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, from his poor origins in Limpopo to his days as a key player in the ANC.
Malema is no longer a member of the ruling party, and the national leadership of the ANC has intervened following what has been described as the “chaos” within the ANC Youth League, which is now under the supervision of a commission including Rivonia Trial arrestees Ahmed Kathrada and Denis Goldberg.
Today the ANC is in some trouble, having lost nearly eight per cent of the national vote over seven years. Although it is still the dominant political force in South Africa and will continue to win elections in the near future, about 40 per cent of the South African population was born after 1994, when the party came to power, and the big question is what will happen in 2019, when President Jacob Zuma must step down under the country’s two-term rule.
One interesting consequence of the problems facing the ANC has been the return to its upper ranks of Cyril Ramaphosa to the post of vice president. In the past he had been a favourite of former President Nelson Mandela to succeed him, but when Thabo Mbeki assumed the role Ramaphosa left politics for the world of business.
I met Ramaphosa shortly before the end of apartheid in the ANC headquarters at Shell House in Johannesburg during a visit with the Socialist International. He is well known internationally and, along with former president of Finland Martti Ahtisaari, was appointed by the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning as an inspector of IRA weapons dumps.
His early background is in trade union affairs as founder nearly 30 years ago of the National Union of Mineworkers, and he helped create the Confederation of South Africa Trade Unions (Cosatu). His experience of both business and trade unions may provide a needed lifeline for a struggling ANC and would make him a strong candidate for the highest political office, despite his claims to have no such ambitions, not to mention the presence of opponents in the movement.
It remains to be seen whether Ramaphosa can be an effective stabilising force within a country straining against various forces that threaten to undo its union as the ‘Rainbow Nation’.
Michael McGowan is a former MEP and president of the development committee of the European Parliament.
