As I promised last week, this column will be my first attempt to handicap the thoroughbreds running in the Democratic vice presidential stakes.
I will begin by discussing the favourites of the media’s odds-makers, and work my way down the tote board to the long shots that I am placing my own personal bets on. Needless to say, no one will be more interested than I am in seeing how well I have called this particular race come July or August, when the winner is announced. So without further ado, let’s discuss the favourites in this race.
At 3:2 odds we have the heavy betting favourite thus far, the distaff that finished second in the Donkey-Ass Stakes, known as Billary. I have already discussed this hardrunning mare at length but I don’t think she can win this race, so I will avoid dwelling on her and/or her chances of winning and focus on the rest of the field instead.
The second choice is a strong-running steed bred in Virginia named Senator Jim Webb, with odds of 2:1. Webb is both a military veteran and a former Republican who served as President Reagan’s secretary of the navy, so he would bolster Obama’s credentials when it comes to being ‘Commander in Chief’, since Obama has no such military related experience (although neither Abraham Lincoln nor Franklin Roosevelt had such experience when they were elected president and they both proved to be very able in the role). While Webb has been a vocal opponent of the Iraq war, he is also an advocate of economic protectionism, of which Obama is not, and he has a reputation for being volatile and difficult to control. I just don’t think his temperament would be the best fit in terms of serving as Obama’s vice president.
Another heavy betting favourite at 3:1 is a Spanish gelding bred from New Mexico named Governor Bill Richardson, who finished fourth in the Donkey-Ass Stakes. Richardson would help Obama attract more Hispanic voters and would also bolster Obama’s perceived lack of foreign policy experience. In addition, New Mexico is a crucial swing state in presidential elections, and was the most closely contested state in the last two presidential polls. But I believe Richardson would be a much better fit in a cabinet position such as secretary of state, so I am not going to bet on him in the VP stakes.
The other heavy favourite at 3:1 odds is the popular pony from North Carolina called John Edwards – an experienced contender who finished a distant third in the 2008 Presidential Stakes, and also won this particular race the last time it was run in 2004. He is also very popular with the type of working class white voters that bet heavily on Billary in a string of races from coast to coast throughout this spring’s presidential campaign. But much like Richardson, I see Edwards as a much better fit as the US attorney general in Obama’s cabinet, and it appears that Edwards himself views that position more favourably than running in the vice presidential race again. Among the nine middle-odds thoroughbreds, at 10:1 is another former VP Stakes winner from the 1992 and 1996 races: Tennessee-bred Al Gore. His experience in the 2000 Presidential Stakes, which he actually won before being disqualified by the Florida stewards, would no doubt help Obama immensely, but this horse seems to be quite content continuing to graze in green pastures around the world and is unlikely to ever race again.
A better place for him might be as an Obama administration cabinet officer in charge of US environmental policy. At 9:1 there is another Virginia thoroughbred named Mark Warner, but he is planning to run in the Virginia senatorial race, which he is also likely to win. It’s doubtful this horse will forgo this winning opportunity in order to run in the VP Stakes. Among the other hopefuls at 15:1 odds are the fifth- and sixth-place finishers in the Donkey-Ass Stakes, senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joe Biden from Delaware. While either would help Obama burnish his foreign policy credentials, I think it is much more likely they would be offered a foreign policy position in Obama’s cabinet. To round off the odds at 17:1 are Sam Nunn, an older Georgia-bred horse with plenty of military and foreign policy experience, and Obama’s South Dakota stable-mate Tom Daschle. But I don’t see them running any better than the trio of Clinton supporters – Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Ted Strickland from Ohio or former general Wesley Clark from Arkansas – which the oddsmakers have grouped at 13:1.
Next week I will discuss the three long shots in the field, from which I believe the winner of the Vice Presidential Stakes will emerge, and why I like their chances even though most of the political odds-makers don’t. Of course, those same odds makers didn’t think much of Obama’s chances either, until he broke out of the gate quickly at the start of the race in Iowa.
