So what is my perspective on Ire-land’s political parties? Well to begin with, they are all to the philosophical left of both the Democratic and Republican Parties in the US. I have heard the comparisons some people make between the centre-right Fianna Fáil/pro-business Prog-ressive Democrats coalition and the decidedly pro-business US Republican Party. But while there is some validity to these, the truth is that Bertie Ahern’s governing coalition would be lucky to capture five seats in the Dáil if they ever tried to run on anything resembling the US Republican Party‘s conservative platform here in Ireland.
The secret to the Republican Party’s success since 1980 has been its ability to recruit traditionally Democratic working class voters to join its pro-business base of middle to upper income professionals and social conservative voters. In contrast, I believe much of Fianna Fáil’s success in past elections has been due to the reverse – its ability to attract more conservative middle and upper income suburban voters to cast ballots for its candidates.
Much like the current US Republican Party, I sense that Fianna Fáil/PD’s strength now lies with business interests and constituencies outside of urban Dublin, with older, and more conservative middle to upper income voters in the rural and suburban areas of the country, in addition to its traditional constituency of working class voters.
This is a different constituency than that of the centrist Fine Gael/left-leaning Labour Party coalition, which I believe is more popular with students and workers in Dublin and Leinster as well as among farmers hurt by global economic market forces. I can also more readily envision the leftist Green Party joining a coalition with Fine Gael/Labour if need be, because they draw their support from somewhat similar constituencies in Dublin and other areas of Ireland.
What I find amazing about Irish politics, though, is the fact that leftist Sinn Féin supporters are more in favour of being in a coalition with Fianna Fáil than with the more left-oriented opposition alternative. I guess this is because Sinn Féin supporters are primarily lower income voters drawn from Fianna Fáil/PD’s traditional working class constituency.
But I have noticed that Sinn Féin advocates social welfare policies similar to the now defunct Socialist Workers Party in the US. I also sense some support among some Fianna Fáil/PD voters for this coalition possibility as well. But I ask myself: what do leftist Sinn Féin supporters really have in common with the majority of centrist Fianna Fáil/PD voters? I don’t get it. All I can say is coalition politics sure makes for some strange bedfellows
In a recent TV interview, I was asked if I could foresee Sinn Féin becoming a part of a coalition government here in the Republic of Ireland. I said I thought they could, under certain conditions. To begin with, I think Sinn Féin would have to obtain more seats in the Dáil by getting more second, third and fourth preference votes, but even then I don’t see them being a factor in any coalition government until they first demonstrate that they can be an effective part of a government in Northern Ireland.
I also said that if economic conditions were worse than they currently are here in the Republic, then their social(ist) programmes might find a broader appeal among voters. This would increase the number of seats they might win in a national election and give them more leverage to use when the time comes for them to be considered as part of a future coalition government. But I think that time is still at least another election or two away, mainly because of Sinn Féin’s historical links to 30 years of IRA violence.
As for which coalition will come out on top in this election, I see very little difference between the positions of both main groupings. Their messages are pretty much the same: cut taxes for first-time home buyers; improve Ireland’s transportation infrastructure; cut crime with more gardai; and do a better job of addressing the country’s heathcare concerns.
However, I do think the recent drop in house prices favours Fianna Fáil and the PDs. People tend to vote by their pocketbooks in national elections, and in times of rising economic uncertainty they will go for the devil they know, rather than the devil they don’t. Bertie’s work on the Northern Ireland peace agreements is also a point in his favour
But the ruling coalition faces the same dilemma that incumbent parties in the US face. Since World War II, the presidency generally has switched from one party to the other every two terms: eight years of Democrat Harry Truman followed by eight years of Republican Dwight Eisen-hower followed by eight years of Democrats John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, and so on. The exceptions were Jimmy Carter’s failure to win re-election in 1980 and George Bush Senior’s success in holding the White House for a third straight Republican term in 1988. But Bush won primarily by capitalising on Reagan’s popularity and Democrat Michael Dukakis’ mistakes.
So Bertie Ahern is also bucking history, in much the same way the US Republican Party’s 2008 presidential nominee will be, in his bid for an unprecedented third term as Ireland’s Prime Minister
If Fine Gael/Labour can make Bertie’s “personal loans” and failure to deliver promised government services in a cost effective way much bigger issues than they currently appear to be, then I would say that Ireland will have its closest election in many years and that there will be a new governing coalition come 25 May when the result starts to become clear.
Otherwise, I think you will probably wake up in the morning facing another five years of the same governing Fianna Fáil/PD coalition, albeit one with fewer seats in the Dáil and maybe even another coalition partner to boot.
Charles Laffiteau is a lifelong US Republican from Dallas, Texas, and one of 80 students worldwide selected for a place on DCU's postgraduate programme in Globalisation, International Relations and Conflict.
Much like the current US Republican Party, I sense that Fianna Fáil/PD’s strength now lies with business interests and constituencies outside of urban Dublin, with older, and more conservative middle to upper income voters in the rural and suburban areas of the country, in addition to its traditional constituency of working class voters.
This is a different constituency than that of the centrist Fine Gael/left-leaning Labour Party coalition, which I believe is more popular with students and workers in Dublin and Leinster as well as among farmers hurt by global economic market forces. I can also more readily envision the leftist Green Party joining a coalition with Fine Gael/Labour if need be, because they draw their support from somewhat similar constituencies in Dublin and other areas of Ireland.
What I find amazing about Irish politics, though, is the fact that leftist Sinn Féin supporters are more in favour of being in a coalition with Fianna Fáil than with the more left-oriented opposition alternative. I guess this is because Sinn Féin supporters are primarily lower income voters drawn from Fianna Fáil/PD’s traditional working class constituency.
But I have noticed that Sinn Féin advocates social welfare policies similar to the now defunct Socialist Workers Party in the US. I also sense some support among some Fianna Fáil/PD voters for this coalition possibility as well. But I ask myself: what do leftist Sinn Féin supporters really have in common with the majority of centrist Fianna Fáil/PD voters? I don’t get it. All I can say is coalition politics sure makes for some strange bedfellows
In a recent TV interview, I was asked if I could foresee Sinn Féin becoming a part of a coalition government here in the Republic of Ireland. I said I thought they could, under certain conditions. To begin with, I think Sinn Féin would have to obtain more seats in the Dáil by getting more second, third and fourth preference votes, but even then I don’t see them being a factor in any coalition government until they first demonstrate that they can be an effective part of a government in Northern Ireland.
I also said that if economic conditions were worse than they currently are here in the Republic, then their social(ist) programmes might find a broader appeal among voters. This would increase the number of seats they might win in a national election and give them more leverage to use when the time comes for them to be considered as part of a future coalition government. But I think that time is still at least another election or two away, mainly because of Sinn Féin’s historical links to 30 years of IRA violence.
As for which coalition will come out on top in this election, I see very little difference between the positions of both main groupings. Their messages are pretty much the same: cut taxes for first-time home buyers; improve Ireland’s transportation infrastructure; cut crime with more gardai; and do a better job of addressing the country’s heathcare concerns.
However, I do think the recent drop in house prices favours Fianna Fáil and the PDs. People tend to vote by their pocketbooks in national elections, and in times of rising economic uncertainty they will go for the devil they know, rather than the devil they don’t. Bertie’s work on the Northern Ireland peace agreements is also a point in his favour
But the ruling coalition faces the same dilemma that incumbent parties in the US face. Since World War II, the presidency generally has switched from one party to the other every two terms: eight years of Democrat Harry Truman followed by eight years of Republican Dwight Eisen-hower followed by eight years of Democrats John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, and so on. The exceptions were Jimmy Carter’s failure to win re-election in 1980 and George Bush Senior’s success in holding the White House for a third straight Republican term in 1988. But Bush won primarily by capitalising on Reagan’s popularity and Democrat Michael Dukakis’ mistakes.
So Bertie Ahern is also bucking history, in much the same way the US Republican Party’s 2008 presidential nominee will be, in his bid for an unprecedented third term as Ireland’s Prime Minister
If Fine Gael/Labour can make Bertie’s “personal loans” and failure to deliver promised government services in a cost effective way much bigger issues than they currently appear to be, then I would say that Ireland will have its closest election in many years and that there will be a new governing coalition come 25 May when the result starts to become clear.
Otherwise, I think you will probably wake up in the morning facing another five years of the same governing Fianna Fáil/PD coalition, albeit one with fewer seats in the Dáil and maybe even another coalition partner to boot.
Charles Laffiteau is a lifelong US Republican from Dallas, Texas, and one of 80 students worldwide selected for a place on DCU's postgraduate programme in Globalisation, International Relations and Conflict.
