If someone had told me this time last year that Rick Santorum would be in a two-man race with Mitt Romney for the Republican Presidential nomination, I would have figured it to be an April Fool’s joke. Well the joke is on me, because the Republican contest has indeed boiled down to these two competitors.
I can almost hear you ask: is that Santorum the former senator from Pennsylvania who was drummed out of office in 2006 by Democrat Bob Casey with a resounding 18-point margin? Yes, that’s the one and the same Santorum who also called intelligent design “a legitimate scientific theory that should be taught in science classes” and pushed for it to be enshrined in law. Fortunately for American school children, this provision was removed from the federal education bill before it was enacted.
If you’re wondering how a man like this could actually be one of the two remaining contenders for the Republican nomination, join the crowd. All I can say is this: only in America could an intellectual flyweight like Rick Santorum generate enough support from right-wing conservatives and evangelical Christians to be a factor in the race to become America’s next Commander in Chief.
But I guess we really shouldn’t be that surprised. After all, these are the same arch-conservatives voters who strongly supported Sarah Palin in her run to be the nation’s Vice President four years ago and were fervently hoping she would run for President this time around.
Fortunately for America and the rest of the world, I still don’t see any way that Santorum can actually win the Republican nomination to do battle with President Obama in November. However, it is still entirely possible that Mitt Romney might tab Santorum as his running mate in an effort to generate support from the GOP’s most conservative voters. If this turns out to be the case and Romney actually succeeds in beating President Obama, then you will need to pray long and hard for Romney’s good health – since Santorum will then be only a heartbeat away from holding America’s highest elected office.
While I am mildly surprised that Santorum has come this far in the race for the nomination, his recent string of primary victories is not so much a testament to his strength as a candidate as it is to Republican conservatives’ lack of enthusiasm for Romney as the party’s standard-bearer in 2012.
After his resounding wins over Romney in South Carolina and Georgia, Newt Gingrich had been hoping right-wing conservatives would coalesce around him as the anti-Romney. But finishing second to Santorum in the Deep South states of Alabama and Mississippi on 13 March sounded the death knell for Gingrich’s hopes. Although he claims he will fight on, I frankly don’t see how he can continue to raise the money he’ll need to continue his presidential campaign.
Romney would probably like Gingrich to continue in the race, however, since Gingrich and Santorum have been effectively splitting the conservative vote, allowing Romney to win tough contests in states like Florida, Michigan and Ohio. And while I also expect Ron Paul to continue running even though he has yet to win a single primary, Santorum’s wins in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana have now all but narrowed the field.
But this still does not mean I believe Santorum has any real hope of actually winning the Republican nomination. Just as Mike Huckabee found out in 2008, Santorum will discover that being the darling of Christian conservatives isn’t enough to win the nod when the Republican ‘establishment’ is backing an opponent who is also massively outspending you.
Since most Republican delegates are awarded based on the proportion of votes each candidate wins, and Romney’s delegate lead continues to widen, I just don’t see a path to victory for Santorum.
The only real question left is how much the lack of support from Christian conservatives will weaken Romney in the November election.
Charles Laffiteau is a US Republican from Dallas, Texas who is pursuing a PhD in Public Policy and Political Economy. He previously lectured on Contemporary US Business & Society at DCU from 2009-2011.
