Now that the results of the Florida primary and the Nevada caucuses have been tallied, it’s time to discuss why I think the pre-election favourite Mitt Romney is still in trouble, and the reasons why both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are likely to remain in the race, even though neither one has any realistic chance of winning the Republican nomination.
Although Romney got over 46 per cent of the vote in the Florida primary (versus 32 per cent for Romney, 13 per cent for Santorum and 7 per cent for Paul), he also outspent Gingrich by more than a five-to-one margin, plunking down more than $15m for television advertising. In Nevada, Romney also spent five times more money than all of his opponents combined, resulting in his getting over 47 per cent of the vote (versus 23 per cent for Gingrich, 19 per cent for Paul and 11 per cent for Santorum). But in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, Rick Santorum pulled off a hat-trick, besting Romney, Gingrich (who wasn’t on the ballot) and Paul by a wide margin in all three states.
Make no mistake, as the best-funded candidate Mitt Romney is still the odds-on favourite to win the Republican nomination. But despite his resounding wins so far, I think Romney still has a way to go in what is now a two-man race with Newt Gingrich, due to his dearth of support from Tea Party activists and Christian social conservatives.
Romney is in trouble because he’s running for President as the Republican establishment’s candidate in the same year that the party’s base is energised against the establishment. As a result, even though he vastly outspends all of his GOP opponents, Romney has yet to garner more than 47 per cent of Republican primary and caucus votes. However, Gingrich has tapped into the anti-establishment sentiment and won in South Carolina by running as the kind of angry and passionate candidate Romney isn’t capable of being.
Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are also well aware of anti-establishment fervour of the Republican base and will remain in the race for at least another couple of months. Santorum hopes to notch another win like he did in Iowa so he has no reason to quit so long as Christian conservative ‘Super PACs’ continue backing him with TV ads. Meanwhile, Paul is likely to remain in the race until the August convention because he is also the standard bearer for the Republican Party’s young and energetic libertarian wing.
The tepid response of Republican social conservatives is one of the major electoral weaknesses in Romney’s presidential bid, should he eventually win the nomination, mainly because it’s likely to carry over in the general election. While none of these right-wing Republican voters will ever cast a ballot for President Obama, many of them will also not campaign aggressively on Romney’s behalf. Furthermore, some of these disenchanted Republicans will either vote for Ron Paul, should he decide to run again as a third-party candidate, or not even bother to vote at all.
For most Republicans, the defining issue in the 2012 election is reviving the American economy by cutting taxes and government spending in all areas except defence. But in his State of the Union address, President Obama took aim at Republicans who want to shrink government by arguing that the “defining issue of our time” is keeping the dream of equal opportunities for all Americans alive.
“We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a growing number of Americans barely get by,” he spoke. “Or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules. What’s at stake are not Democratic values or Republican values, but American values. We have to reclaim them.”
Charles Laffiteau is a US Republican from Dallas, Texas who is pursuing a PhD in Public Policy and Political Economy. He previously lectured on Contemporary US Business & Society at DCU from 2009-2011.
