And then there were four. First Herman Cain was driven from the race for the Republican Presidential nomination by a litany of adultery and sexual harassment allegations before the first votes were even cast in Iowa. Then Michelle Bachman followed suit after her dismal showing in the Iowa caucuses. But after the results from the second primary in New Hampshire, Bachman and Cain were joined on the political campaign sidelines by Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman.
Huntsman was the first to go, even though he finished a respectable third with almost 17 per cent of the vote in New Hampshire. But with less than 1 per cent a week earlier in Iowa, Huntsman had been counting on a second place finish in New Hampshire to breathe some life back into his campaign. Given his poor prospects with the much more conservative voters in South Carolina’s primary, Huntsman decided to call it quits rather than continue a futile campaign.
As I have noted in my previous columns, Huntsman never really had a chance – largely because he was the only Republican candidate who resonated with moderate Republican and independent voters like me. But the GOP of today is dominated by anti-abortion, anti-immigration, anti-government and anti-tax social conservatives and Tea Party extremists. As a result, any Republican candidate who demonstrates willingness to work with Democrats or President Obama is vilified by right-wing activists who condemn the very idea of political compromise.
When he announced his withdrawal, Huntsman also noted the chilling effect the extremely negative political views of such Republican activists were having, not only on the Republican Party but also on the American people. Huntsman’s withdrawal announcement says: “At its core the Republican Party is a party of ideas, but the current toxic form of our political discourse does not help our cause and is just one of the many reasons the American people has lost trust in their leaders.”
The other big loser in New Hampshire was Texas Governor Rick Perry, who followed up his 10 per cent of the vote and fifth place showing in Iowa with an abysmal sixth place finish, attracting less than 1 per cent of New Hampshire Republicans’ votes. But even though Perry’s withdrawal just two days before the South Carolina primary wasn’t a surprise, his subsequent endorsement of Newt Gingrich for President did help Gingrich win there over second-place Mitt Romney by a much larger margin than most political observers expected.
Gingrich has been surging in recent Republican polls, so his resounding 40 per cent victory over Romney (who garnered 28 per cent in South Carolina) sets up what will essentially be a two-horse race for the Republican nomination. The other two candidates, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, don’t have a chance of winning because they don’t have the campaign financing or a broad enough base of support beyond their core constituencies.
But even though it only took a few weeks and the results from the first two primaries to cut the Republican field in half, since Mitt Romney is sinking in the polls I expect it to be at least another couple of months before we see anyone else withdraw from the race. Rick Santorum narrowly won the Iowa caucuses thanks to his support from social conservatives and has no compelling reason to drop out so long as they continue to support him. And Ron Paul has an equally supportive base of libertarian voters who have thus far shown no inclination to vote for the other candidates so there is no reason he should quit the race either.
Next time I will discuss why pre-election favourite Mitt Romney is now in trouble, some other reasons why both Santorum and Paul are likely to remain in the race, and the results of the Florida primary as well as the Nevada and Maine caucuses.
Charles Laffiteau is a US Republican from Dallas, Texas who is pursuing a PhD in Public Policy and Political Economy. He previously lectured on Contemporary US Business & Society at DCU from 2009-2011.
