The results of the Iowa caucuses are in, and one of the first casualties was an Iowa native, Michele Bachman. The representative had spent most of her time and campaign money barnstorming the state where she grew up, hoping that the combination of her evangelical Christian and Tea Party bona fides would allow her to finish as one of the top two or three Republican candidates.
Instead, her rather dismal sixth place finish, with a measly five per cent of the vote, effectively ended her campaign for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination. In fact, the only active Republican candidate Bachman finished ahead of was former Utah Governor, Jon Huntsman, who barely spent any time or money campaigning in Iowa.
However, even though Bachman has now suspended her 2012 campaign, she is both photogenic and a favourite of Tea Party and evangelical Christians, so I strongly suspect she will try to run for President again in 2016 and/or 2020.
As for Governor Huntsman, even though he finished dead last with only one per cent of the Republican votes, he didn’t expect to do well in Iowa anyway, and had instead focused his time and resources on the New Hampshire primary on 10 January.
Although Huntsman is far and away the best Republican candidate in the field, I simply don’t believe his more moderate positions on issues like the economy, taxes, and climate change to resonate with enough Republican voters to give him any real chance of winning in 2012. But given Republicans’ general lack of enthusiasm for the rest of the field of candidates, if Huntsman finishes as one of the top two votegetters in New Hampshire, he may indeed still have a chance in 2012.
Besides Bachman, the other two Republican candidates who had to be most disappointed with the Iowa caucus results were former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who finished fourth with 13 per cent of the vote, and Texas Governor Rick Perry, who finished fifth with only 10 per cent of votes. Perry in particular had to very disheartened by his poor showing given all the time and money he had spent in Iowa, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be the next candidate to follow Bachman’s lead and head for the exits.
On the other hand, Newt Gingrich’s fourth place finish wasn’t all that bad considering that he had been targeted by a series of very negative campaign ads paid for by ‘independent’ political action committees (PACs) aligned with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. I therefore fully expect Gingrich to continue his campaign for at least a couple of more months, provided he can finish among the top three votegetters in the remaining January primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada. If Gingrich fails to crack the top three by the end of this month, then I believe his 2012 Presidential aspirations will be doomed.
As for the other Republican candidates, unlike many other political pundits I wasn’t surprised by the close finish of the top three, because I understand how each of them appeals to their particular base of voters.
Ron Paul’s third place showing with 21 per cent of the vote is a reflection of his attractiveness to the libertarian wing of the Republican Party. Paul’s philosophy resonates with Republican libertarians who comprise as much as 25 per cent of the party’s voters.
Former Senator Rick Santorum’s virtual tie for first with the best-funded candidate, Mitt Romney, is likewise a reflection of his appeal to evangelical Christians and Tea Party activists. As for Romney, he appeals to more pragmatic Republicans who comprise about a quarter of Republican voters and favour the best organised and well funded candidates.
I will discuss Romney in greater detail, as well as the New Hampshire results, next time out.
Charles Laffiteau is a US Republican from Dallas, Texas who is pursuing a PhD in Public Policy and Political Economy. He previously lectured on Contemporary US Business & Society at DCU from 2009-2011.
