Last time out I discussed the extraordinary influence that right wing evangelical Christians and the anti-tax Tea Party movement currently exert on the Republican Party, and in turn the field of Republican Presidential candidates. That influence has played a significant part in the decision of several Republican candidates to either withdraw from the race, or not run in the first place.
The first casualty was Tim Pawlenty, who actually began his campaign for the GOP nomination well before the end of his second term as governor of Minnesota in 2010. Pawlenty had been on John McCain’s shortlist as a possible running mate in 2008, and establishment Republicans had been talking about him as a possible presidential candidate in 2005, even before he even ran for a second term as governor in 2006.
So it came as no surprise when Governor Pawlenty also started showing up to speak at Republican Party functions in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina during 2008 and 2009.
Pawlenty continued his meticulous preparations to run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination by announcing in June 2009 that he would not run for a third term as governor and by creating a political action committee (PAC) to raise money for his campaign, called Freedom First. He then hired respected Republican presidential campaigners such as Vin Weber, former Republican National Committee spokesman Alex Conant, and Sara Taylor, the former director of the Office of Political Affairs for President George W Bush.
By the time Pawlenty formally announced he was running for President in May 2011, the only real surprise was that he had waited so long to make it official. But while Pawlenty had the necessary conservative credentials, he could never become a Tea Party favourite because he wasn’t a fiery public speaker, and had a reputation for being able to strike compromises with Minnesota’s Democrat-controlled state legislature.
As a result, another candidate from Minnesota was able to use her oratory skills and legislative track record of never compromising with Democrats to capture twice as many votes as Pawlenty from the Tea Party activists and evangelical Christians who dominated the voting in Iowa’s 14 August caucus straw poll. Since Pawlenty had invested a great deal of his time and money in Iowa, he quickly realised that his dismal finish behind Minnesota’s Michelle Bachman also signalled the end of his Presidential campaign hopes.
Although Pawlenty may have been the first formal casualty of the GOP’s antagonistic ideological extremists, he is by no means the only one. Several other Republican governors with conservative credentials, but a track record of compromising with Democrats or state legislatures controlled by the Democratic Party, wisely decided not to even bother running for President in 2012.
Second-term Indiana governor Mitch Daniels, who isn’t eligible to run for governor again in 2012, refused to yield to heavy pressure from establishment Republicans when he announced on 22 May that he would not run for President. After Daniels opted not to run, his first-term counterpart from New Jersey, Chris Christie, then came under heavy pressure from long-time Republicans to jump into the 2012 race. But with time running short, on 4 October Christie put an end to the speculation by saying “now is not my time”.
While both Daniels and Christie cited their families and duties as governor as reasons for deciding not to run in 2012, GOP insiders have also speculated both men felt it would be difficult to win if they were forced to stump on a Republican platform that reflected the views of Tea Party activists and Christian evangelicals. Both governors were also well aware that they owed their previous election successes to their ability to attract more moderate independent voters, rather than just the support of the extreme elements that currently dominate Republican primary politics.
Next time I will discuss several other Republican governors and their reasons for deciding not to run for the GOP nomination for President in 2012.
Charles Laffiteau is a US Republican from Dallas, Texas who is pursuing a PhD in International Relations and lectures on Contemporary US Business & Society at DCU
