As I said last time out, Congressional Republicans are putting their selfish personal and political interests ahead of their country by pandering to the Tea Party. However, they’re not the only ones pandering to narrow-minded, right wing interest groups in a bid to win elections. The GOP’s Presidential candidates are also tripping over each other in an effort to appease the Tea Party and Christian fundamentalists. But what does this mean going forward?
In the more distant future, the impact is positive as it means the Republican Presidential candidate in 2012 will in all likelihood endorse policies and ideological positions that appeal only to the extremist elements that currently control the party. As a consequence, American voters will have a clear choice between voting for a backward looking Republican with a right wing agenda, or re-electing a Democratic President with a much more forward-looking and centrist legislative programme.
Unfortunately the near term effect is decidedly negative because it means the partisan political paralysis in Washington DC – which almost led to a historic default on America’s debt – will continue for at least another 18 months. With a national election looming, Republican candidates – whether they are running for Congress or for President – will be loathe to compromise with their Democratic counterparts on legislation to address America’s anemic economic recovery and stubbornly high unemployment, or the country’s bloated federal budget deficit. Furthermore, even after 2012, any real action on these issues will still be contingent on the results of the general election.
I believe Standard & Poor’s cut America’s formerly AAA debt rating because its analysts agree with me that Republicans will not be able to win both the Presidential election and the 60 seats in the Senate they need to avoid compromise with Democrats. But given the fact that Republicans are unlikely to compromise regardless of the 2012 election results, a political solution for America’s debt problems appears to be unlikely for at least another election cycle.
Granted, as a part of the ‘deal’ Congress made with President Obama in order to avoid a bond default, a ‘super committee’ will be created this month to decide by Thanksgiving how America will cut more than $1.2trn of its debt. But I seriously doubt that the six Republican and six Democratic members of this committee will ever be able to agree on what cuts to make. And even if they do reach an agreement by 23 November, both the Democrat-controlled Senate and the Republican-led House of Representatives will debate their recommendations until Christmas or well into the New Year.
Of course the super committee’s budget cuts really only address the federal budget deficit over the next decade. In the meantime, Congress still has to approve the budget for the upcoming 2012 fiscal year, which begins in October. Since Congress didn’t approve the 2011 budget until April last due to Republican intransigence, it is likely we will see more partisan political wrangling and the possibility of another government shutdown just in time for Christmas.
Such an impasse will trigger automatic budget cuts for all US domestic programmes, as well as for the Defense Department. But as Standard & Poor’s noted, they downgraded America’s debt rating because these cuts don’t demonstrate any significant progress by America’s dysfunctional Republican Party towards balancing the nation’s books.
So it will be up to America’s voters to decide what our government’s role in stimulating the economy and protecting the needs of its citizens should be when the ycast their votes in 2012. I remain cautiously optimistic that they will choose more wisely than they did in 2010.
Charles Laffiteau is a US Republican from Dallas, Texas who is pursuing a PhD in International Relations and lectures on Contemporary US Business & Society at DCU
