The global credit crunch is spreading ‘doom and gloom’ around the world, but nowhere is the situation as dire as in Zimbabwe. Viktor Posudnevsky reviews the latest developments in the southern African country
Doom and gloom has become a familiar by-phrase in Ireland in the recent months, but consider living in a place like Zimbabwe. Even the highest-paid professionals in Harare – the country’s capital – are struggling, and sometimes cannot even afford three meals a day as salaries are withheld and state services deteriorate rapidly.
Most schools have not opened since the Christmas holidays, and exams have not taken place in Zimbabwe’s secondary schools since June. Some of the schools might never re-open: the government simply does not have the funds to pay teachers’ salaries. Public sector workers are currently getting a mere $10 per week, with a promise that they’ll be repaid later.
Most of the population is completely cut off from even basic health services. Doctors and hospitals get very little funds from the state and are forced to charge prices which are exorbitant for most Zimbabweans.
In fact, most of the country depends on money sent home by the Zimbabwean diaspora abroad. Often, a Western Union or MoneyGram transfer from someone working in Ireland not only feeds that person’s family in Zimbabwe, but also their entire neighbourhood.
“If I were told about what would happen to my country when I was growing up there in the ’80s, I would have never believed it,” says one Zimbab-wean living in Ireland, referring to the prosperity her native country enjoyed in times past.
State of crisis
Most Zimbabweans find it hard to believe that things can get any worse in their native country, but at the same time there is little faith that improvements will be seen any time soon. The Zimbabwean crisis is not easy to fix, especially in a period of a worldwide economic downturn, while the political situation in the country is making things worse.
Robert Mugabe, a revolutionary turned president, has ruled Zimbabwe for 28 years, the last decade or so with an iron fist. In 2008 the main opposition party won a general election, but the 84-year-old Mugabe is not in a rush to retire. An intimidation campaign targeted at members of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) forced party leader Morgan Tsvangirai to withdraw from the second round of elections.
Last September, under pressure from the international community, Mugabe sat down for talks with Tsvangirai, which led to both sides signing a power-sharing agreement. But it soon became clear that Mugabe and Tsvangirai have very different opinions on what power sharing actually means.
“It appears that Mugabe wants to incorporate MDC into his party Zanu-PF and thereby destroy the opposition,” said Dr Padraig Carmody, a Trinity College Dublin professor who has written a book on Zimbabwe. “In 1988 Mugabe used the same ploy to get rid of another rival party.” A new round of talks was held in mid-January with no result.
The political deadlock has paralysed the government. And as a result, the state failed to act adequately when confronted with recent national emergencies, such as a cholera outbreak last December.
What next for Zimbabwe?
Zimbabwe has been compared to a house of cards which could fall down any moment. Sooner or later that moment will come. The only thing which is deterring Zimbabweans from a large-scale revolt is their total powerlessness in the face of the army, the police and the war veterans who are all standing behind the present government and their leader. But as things get worse, the desperation of ordinary Zimbabweans may drive them to a full-scale uprising.
Even among the loyal – and well-paid – ranks of army generals and top functionaries, dissent is growing as Zimbabwe’s economy deteriorates. Observers have noted that power struggles are being played out in the higher ranks of the army, and the possibility of a coup is getting more and more real as people’s dissatisfaction with Mugabe grows.
But even Mugabe leaving office would hardly fix Zimbabwe’s multitude of problems. The international community will have to extend significant support as the country tries to rebuild itself.
